Thursday, September 27, 2012

China and India Are an Opportunity, Not a Threat http://t.co/x7AgnFM8 -- Harvard Biz Review (@HarvardBiz)

Monday, September 24, 2012

There has been a big push for America to drop its sanctions against Myanmar http://t.co/UPbC6Pyr -- The Economist (@TheEconomist)

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Indian reform-Finally



AFTER years of drift and sleaze, the Congress-led government of Manmohan Singh has found some pizzazz. The initiatives that the prime minister announced on September 13th and 14th are nothing compared with the “big bang” reforms of 1991 that set India growing and for which Mr Singh, then finance minister, was chiefly responsible. They do not even match the incremental reforms of Mr Singh’s first term as prime minister from 2004-09. Still, from an ageing man whose second-term performance has been feeble, they mark a welcome change. Businesspeople are suddenly less despondent.

Mr Singh began with a small but bold cut in diesel subsidies, which mainly benefit the better-off. As the oil price has risen and the rupee fallen, the subsidy bill has exploded—one reason why budget-deficit targets will be missed by a mile. He has also revived a push to allow foreign supermarkets to operate in India’s spectacularly inefficient retail sector, dominated by small shops. A fragmented wholesale-distribution network spoils a high proportion of fruit and vegetables before they reach the consumer. That hurts both farmers and the hungry.
Read more

Japanese Airlines-From bloated to floated



EVERY three months or so, employees of Japan Airlines (JAL), from the boss to pilots and ground staff, spend a day studying a little white book that is JAL’s turnaround manual. Some discuss it in department meetings every day. It sounds Maoist, but the prescriptions are cheerily Zen-like, reflecting the thinking of the man JAL credits as its saviour, Kazuo Inamori, an aged business guru. One of its mantras is: “Be thankful.” Indeed, JAL has a lot to be thankful for.

On September 10th JAL—lavishly supported by the government—at last emerged from its spectacular nose-dive into bankruptcy, pricing an initial public offering (IPO) at ¥663 billion ($8.5 billion), at the top of a range offered to investors. The price will make it more valuable than its national stablemate, All Nippon Airways (ANA), when it is relisted on September 19th, even though analysts say ANA has long been the better-managed airline. ANA has grumbled about the unfair advantages handed to its better-known rival.


It has shed all its jumbos since then, slashed its number of routes, reduced staff by a third, persuaded its unionised pilots and staff to take big pay cuts, and slashed its pension payouts by up to half. As a consequence, the latest results show its operating profit margin has surged to 17%, from negative territory in 2008. That is higher than some of the most profit-hungry low-cost carriers, such as Ryanair (see chart). It has made JAL, for a while at least, one of the world’s most profitable airlines.In many ways, the turnaround highlights the pros and cons of government intervention. On the positive side, the airline’s return to profitability has been stunning. JAL was one of those blue-blooded Japanese firms that put prestige far above profit: before its bankruptcy in 2010 the company once owned the world’s biggest fleet of jumbo jets, many of which flew half-empty.
More at 

Japan’s energy security-Foot on the gas




WITH doubts running high about how long the Japanese government can survive, its decision last week to phase out nuclear power by the end of the 2030s looked half-baked. Sure enough on September 19th it dropped any pretence of a deadline, leaving open the possibility that at least two reactors under construction could operate until the 2050s.

The ambiguity has much to do with the general election which the prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, has promised to call soon. Polling indicates that since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011 public opinion has turned firmly against nuclear energy. Yet big business argues that Japan’s economy will suffer if the phase-out occurs too quickly. Local governors whose prefectures host nuclear power plants also complain about the strategy.

For the time being, the government’s policy appears to be to pay lip service to a phase-out that it is too timid to implement, while also scrambling for alternative sources of energy. Even before the nuclear disaster, Japan was the world’s biggest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and now consumes nearly a third of global output. But ensuring reliable supplies, as well as securing a good price, is becoming a foreign-policy headache.

read more

China nixes events to mark 40 years of Japan ties


TOKYO (AP) — Japan says China has canceled events planned to commemorate 40 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries, further signaling its anger over a simmering territorial dispute.
Japanese Foreign Ministry official Hiroaki Sakamoto confirmed Sunday that China has canceled the events, planned for Thursday. He did not provide further details.
China’s Xinhua News Agency, citing officials with the China-Japan Friendship Association and another government-affiliated group, reported Sunday that the events would not take place as planned. It said they would be held ‘‘at a proper time.’’
Calls to China’s Foreign Ministry were not answered Sunday.
Relations have sunk to their worst level in years as the two sides spar over islands claimed by both countries.

Malaysian jobseekers to face tough times in Q3



Employers predict that jobseekers in Malaysia will face a harder time in the third quarter of 2012, according to the latest survey by JobStreet.com.

Despite assurances from the government that the Malaysian economy is set to grow by up to six per cent, one third of employers (33%) feel that the general outlook will be slightly worse or much worse. This is a marked increased from Q2’s 22%.

The number of respondents who answered that the job outlook will be slightly better or much better has dropped from 47% to 31% for Q3 2012. The number of employers who felt that employment prospects would worsen increased by 10%, compared to the same period last year.

Almost half of respondents (46%) said that they will be hiring less people, replacing or filling essential positions only in the next 12 months. Another 11% said that they will not be conducting any hiring exercises in the near future.

The survey said that jobseekers with skills in sales and marketing, or marketing and business development, are the most sought after, followed by those with expertise in computer and information technology, accounting and administration.

Major industries such as manufacturing, information and communication technology, retail and wholesale trade, and finance were likely to have the lowest job growth in the next year.

Investment protection agreement marks new milestone in cross-strait relations

Two years of negotiations have finally resulted in the signing of the Cross-Strait Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement between Taiwan and mainland China on August 9, formally establishing an institutionalized cross-strait mechanism that strengthens protection of the lives and property of investors. The agreement encompasses Taiwanese businesses that invest through third areas, and marks a new milestone in cross-strait economic and trade relations.

Statistics compiled by the Investment Commission of the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) show that applications by Taiwanese businesses to invest in China amounted to a total of 39,891 cases with a total investment value of approximately US$117.4 billion between 1991 and the end of June this year. This accounted for about 63% of Taiwan’s total outward investment during the period, making China the biggest recipient of overseas investment by Taiwanese businesses.

Many Taiwanese companies have been struggling to develop their business in mainland China for years, and some have even moved the center of their operations there, but their investments have never enjoyed legal protections. Minister Shin-Yuan Lai of the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) notes that the Cross-Strait Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement is a vital foundation for the protection of Taiwanese investors, “the first step in the establishment of safety,” and that it will help make the protection of Taiwanese businesses more complete and more institutionalized, and the investment environment healthier.
Read more

Saturday, September 22, 2012

New war footing on Thai-Cambodian border

Since early January, Royal Thai Army (RTA) planners have prepared new plans to defend Thailand against potential attacks from Cambodia, a move that threatens to rekindle tensions along the two countries' contested border. The plan, drawn up by the RTA's 2nd Army Region and formally approved in April, represents a significant departure from previous Thai strategic footings vis-a-vis Cambodia and involves the immediate commitment of large regular army combat units along the border.

The new plan is highly unusual for the RTA and could be perceived as provocative given the lack of any immediate and realistic military threat from Cambodia. It would also seem to contradict the policy of the Yingluck Shinawatra administration, which has worked to ease tensions with Cambodia over a disputed land claim at the Preah Vihear temple that spiked during the previous Abhisit Vejjajiva-led government.

The last time that Thailand faced a threat of conventional invasion was in early 1979, when units of the Vietnamese army arrived on the Thai border after overthrowing Cambodia's Khmer Rouge government. There was an initial brief period of panic that the battle-hardened Vietnamese might continue into Thailand. Those concerns faded, however, when it became apparent that Vietnam was bogged down in Cambodia and China offered support in the event that the Vietnamese crossed into Thai territory.
Read more at 

Suu Kyi backs end of US sanctions

Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was upbeat over the country's reforms in her first public address in the United States, urging the US to drop its last sanctions. Her optimism was tempered with warnings that democracy demanded the release of all political prisoners and the call for a clear reform timetable beyond the whims of the military and government.

Remittance growth on target | BusinessWorld Online Edition

Remittance growth on target 

Friday, September 21, 2012

With Indian entrepreneurs, capital (not ideas) determines who succeeds. http://t.co/s6bznDDB -- Harvard Biz Review (@HarvardBiz)

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Share those magical moments

Dear readers,
I have created a place in facebook for you to share your positive service encounters with the world.
Please record your positive experiences.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/WHO-WOW-US/219182861432518?ref=hl
Thank you
Amithe

Asia Now Home To Most Number Of Millionaires In The World: Report | Economy Watch http://t.co/4WkLVtEW -- EconomyWatch (@EconomyWatch)

Russia To Write Off 90 Percent Of North Korea’s Debt | Economy Watch http://t.co/OHDyRX4G -- EconomyWatch (@EconomyWatch)

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

China-Japan Territorial Dispute Hurts $340bn Trade Ties | Economy Watch http://t.co/ZqiPoWX6 -- EconomyWatch (@EconomyWatch)

Saturday, September 15, 2012

A typhoon packing fierce winds is barreling toward Okinawa, Japan. http://t.co/kcJ4A6Oq -- CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk)

Friday, September 14, 2012

The story of an Indian firm that found motivated employees in an unlikely place http://t.co/3kyb10eK -- Harvard Biz Review (@HarvardBiz)

China Announces $2.2 Billion Subsidy Scheme For Energy-Saving Appliances | Economy Watch http://t.co/09WeOJQK -- EconomyWatch (@EconomyWatch)

12 Predictions for the Chinese Economy: Michael Pettis | Economy Watch http://t.co/uKWhPctP -- EconomyWatch (@EconomyWatch)

Monday, September 10, 2012

BRIC ?

Have the BRIC Nations lived up to the Hype? | Economy Watch http://t.co/J3cUBIlm -- EconomyWatch (@EconomyWatch)

China's approach to Africa: Markets first, democracy second. http://t.co/hhnHRbZt -- Harvard Biz Review (@HarvardBiz)

What's next for Samsung? The real impact of the Apple verdict. http://t.co/u4j6v3BJ -- Harvard Biz Review (@HarvardBiz)

Saturday, September 8, 2012

China has approved plans for Rmb1tn ($158bn) in infrastructure spending


China approved $158 billion in new infrastructure spending, including railroad projects.
(Financial Times) -- China has approved plans for Rmb1tn ($158bn) in infrastructure spending, an investment push that analysts say will help support growth in the stuttering economy.

The money will be rolled out over several years and the government has not described the investments as a stimulus package, but the announcements nevertheless fuelled renewed optimism about China's prospects.

The domestic stock market surged more than 4 per cent in early trading on Friday, reflecting the hope of investors that China could be on the verge of turning the corner after two years of consistently slower growth.

"With clear signs of a worsening slowdown of economic growth, China's central government finally took real actions," said Lu Ting, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
?

China's growth fell to 7.6 per cent in the second quarter, its lowest in three years, and data in recent months has pointed to an even steeper slowdown this quarter. Economic indicators for August, to be published over the weekend, are expected to show sluggish industrial output.

Analysts had long predicted that the government would intervene with more fiscal spending and monetary easing to cushion the slowdown, but the nation's top leaders have been very cautious and have only made mild moves so far.

Fear of overstimulating the economy, as happened in 2009, has been one major constraint. Officials also appear to have been preoccupied with politics as a once-in-a-decade leadership transition is set to take place later this year.

In the announcements over the past two days, the National Development and Reform Commission, a top central planning agency, has approved 25 urban rail projects, 13 highway construction projects, seven waterway projects and nine waste water treatment plants. The total cost of the projects is estimated to be about Rmb1tn, or 2 per cent of gross domestic product.

"We believe implementation of these projects will begin in the coming months, which will cause fixed asset investment growth to rise. The impact should start to be reflected in GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2012," said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist with Nomura Securities.

Projects spearheaded by the NDRC are seen by analysts as much more credible spending commitments than those announced by a series of local governments in recent months.

Local officials are keen to prop up growth, but they are struggling to find the means to do so, because their tax and land-sale revenues are flagging and they are effectively barred from borrowing money. By contrast, once projects have received the NDRC's stamp of approval, funding is usually a formality, with either banks providing the financing or the government arranging for bond issuances.
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/07/business/china-stimulus-infrastructure/index.html?hpt=ias_c2

Friday, September 7, 2012

SK Telecom

SK Telecom hit 5m LTE subscribers, adding 1m users in 46 days with an average of 33k new subs a day http://t.co/EY5l8Hc4 #SKtelecom #LTE -- Telecom Asia (@TelecomAsia)

Huawei India ?

How #Huawei, the global telecom giant, is Indianising its business model, culture and consumer products!! http://t.co/xoC736JY -- Bhavya Siddappa (@bhavis)

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Lending in China

China Development Bank Steps Up Lending To Private Firms | Economy Watch http://t.co/ArDaFaqu -- EconomyWatch (@EconomyWatch)

NZ

New Zealand augments online government services http://t.co/Q0Qwl7Vk -- Telecom Asia (@TelecomAsia)

Southeast Asia in for mobile video boom. Market to be worth $22b by 2016, but current services inadequate: report . http://t.co/gKhpRIUV -- Telecom Asia (@TelecomAsia)

Child labour

Samsung To Review All Chinese Suppliers After Child Labour Accusations | Economy Watch http://t.co/O0cEacQb -- EconomyWatch (@EconomyWatch)

Saturday, September 1, 2012

A court in Tokyo has ruled that Samsung Electronics did not infringe on patents held by Apple,




A court in Tokyo has ruled that Samsung Electronics did not infringe on patents held by Apple, a victory for the South Korean company.

The patent was related to transferring media content between devices.

It comes after Samsung lost a key patent case in the US last week and was ordered to pay more than $1bn (£664m) in damages.

This is one of many cases brought to courts around the world by the two smartphone market leaders.

"We welcome the court's decision, which confirmed our long-held position that our products do not infringe Apple's intellectual property," said Samsung in a statement to the BBC.

Tokyo District Judge Tamotsu Shoji dismissed the case filed by Apple in August, finding that Samsung was not in violation of Apple patents related to synchronising music and video data between devices and servers.Sales ban

On 24 August, a US court ruled Samsung had infringed Apple patents for mobile devices, including the iPhone and iPad.

The company has vowed to continue to fight against Apple saying it will appeal against the US ruling.

Apple is now seeking a ban on sales of eight Samsung phones in the US market.

On 6 December, US District Judge Lucy Koh, who presided over the initial trial, will hear Apple's plea for an injunction against the Samsung phones, although it does not include the most recent Samsung phone to hit the market, the Galaxy S3.



Product designer Geoff McCormick strips down an iPhone to explain patents
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19433019

Could Burma be the next emerging market miracle?


Not just green shoots, Burma's economy is set to bloom

In Rangoon's hotel lobbies anticipation is high. Brash Australian miners rub shoulders with hard-nosed American private equity investors. Indonesian infrastructure specialists and Japanese salesmen scout out the terrain.

Everyone here is eager to be first out of the starting blocks as the economy of Burma, a previously isolated country, opens up for business.

The opportunities abound, in raw materials such as gems, timber, rubber and gas, but also in catering for a population of 55 million in need of everything from healthcare to smartphones.

"I think this is the last virgin market left in the world, the last untapped market," says Vinod Chugani, an American-educated Singaporean.

"Twelve years ago, when I was in China, I felt the same rush."
Hands up who's ready to do business in Burma

Vinod Chugani is here to sell Panasonic's range of multi-line phones, rice cookers and projectors.

"There is a massive race going on. It's intense," he says.

"This is one of last frontiers, along with North Korea and to some extent Iran," says Romain Caillaud, who heads the Rangoon office of Vriens and Partners, advising multinationals entering Burma.

Burma also sits at a key geographic junction.

"Just look at the map and you'll see the location is strategic, at the crossroad between India, China, Thailand, in the middle of one of the fastest growing regions in the world," he says.Piles of cash

After 50 years the generals who governed Burma have stepped back and handed power to a nominally civilian government.

They have also begun the first tentative steps in reforming the economy.

And they have been rewarded with the suspension of sanctions by the West.

But 50 years of isolation from the global economy has taken its toll, above all on the financial system.
Banking cash in Rangoon is a big job

At the main Rangoon branch of Yoma bank, customers wander in with plastic bags full of bank notes.

Their voices are barely audible above the whirring and clicking of mechanical counting machines, lined up like washing machines in a launderette.

A dozen staff work their way through the stacks piled high on the tables.

American financial sanctions and a home-grown banking crisis have undermined Burma's banking system, so that now most people simply keep their money in cash.

If you want to buy a car you go to the showroom with a box full of notes. If you want to buy a house you drive over a car full of money.

There are a handful of cash machines now in Rangoon, but none that work for foreigners. Credit cards can be used, for a stiff fee, only at a few top-range hotels.

All this may soon change, with the lifting of American financial sanctions.

But the rudimentary banking system is not the only obstacle to doing business.

A Youthful Populace Helps Make the Philippines an Economic Bright Spot in Asia



MANILA — In the upscale business district of Manila, a midweek crowd spills out into the street. The New York-themed Borough restaurant is pulsating to the beat of a Bon Jovi song, while young, hip Filipinos take shots of tequila from a passing tray and sing in unison.



Enlarge This Image
Jes Aznar for The New York Times

A company support center in Makati City, Philippines. Last year, the Philippines surpassed India as the world’s leading provider of voice-based outsourcing services.


“Whoa-oh, we’re halfway there!” the crowd sings. “Whoa-oh, livin’ on a prayer!”

The revelers have reason to celebrate. Times are pretty good in thePhilippines if you are young, skilled and live in the city. Young urban workers are helping to give the country its brightest prospects in decades, economists say.

With $70 billion in reserves and lower interest payments on its debt after recent credit rating upgrades, the Philippinespledged $1 billion to the International Monetary Fund to help shore up the struggling economies of Europe.

“This is the same rescue fund that saved the Philippines when our country was in deep financial trouble in the early ’80s,” said Representative Mel Senen Sarmiento, a congressman from Western Samar.

The Philippines has certainly had a steady flow of positive economic news recently. On July 4, Standard & Poor’s raised the country’s debt rating to just below investment grade, the highest rating for the country since 2003 and equivalent to that of Indonesia.

The Philippines is the 44th-largest economy in the world today, according to HSBC estimates. But if current trends hold, it can leap to the No. 16 spot by 2050. The Philippine stock market, one of the best performers in the region, closed at a record high after the recent S.& P. rating upgrade, and the country’s currency, the peso, reached a four-year high against the dollarat about the same time.

The gross domestic product of the Philippines grew 6.4 percent in the first quarter, according to the country’s central bank, outperforming all other growth rates in the region except China’s. Economists expect similarly strong growth in the second quarter.

“We have made a very bold forecast for the Philippines, but I think justifiably so,” said Frederic Neumann, a senior economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.

A high population growth rate, long considered a hindrance to prosperity, is now often seen as a driving force for economic growth. About 61 percent of the population in the Philippines is of working age, between 15 and 64. That figure is expected to continue increasing, which is not the case for many of its Asian neighbors, whose populations are aging.

“There are a number of countries in Asia that will see their working-age populations decline in the coming years,” Mr. Neumann said. “The Philippines stands out as the youngest population. As other countries see their labor costs go up, the Philippines will remain competitive due to the sheer abundance of workers joining the labor force.”

Many of those workers are feeding the country’s robust outsourcing industry. The Philippines, where English is widely spoken, surpassed India last year as the world’s leading provider of voice-based outsourcing services like customer service call centers.

According to the country’s Board of Investments, offshore call centers employed 683,000 Filipinos in 2011 and generated about $11 billion in revenue, a 24 percent increase from the previous year. The government is seeking to expand the industry and has said it hopes it will generate $25 billion in revenue by 2016.

The Philippines’ growing prosperity has also been driven by the 9.5 million Filipinos — almost 10 percent of the population — who work outside the country and who sent home about $20 billion in 2011. That is up from $7.5 billion in 2003.

Trinh D. Nguyen, an economist with HSBC in Hong Kong, said the Philippines had benefited from an increase in government efficiency and revenue collection, as well as aggressive actions to address corruption, like the impeachment of the chief justice of the Supreme Court and the arrest of former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo on suspicion of accepting kickbacks and of misusing government lottery money.

“It is not only short-term growth that draws investors to the Philippines,” Ms. Nguyen said. “The fundamentals are there.”

But there are also real weaknesses in the country. Recent flooding, which by some estimates submerged 50 percent of Manila, illustrates a shortage of modern infrastructure that makes the Philippines highly vulnerable to disasters.

“The Philippines is hit with several deadly and devastating natural disasters every year,” Ms. Nguyen said.

But government officials have said that the recent flooding might actually help economic growth, because reconstruction will require an increase in public spending and the country will have to put into place programs to make it more resistant to the effects of natural disasters.

Another hurdle is the fact that the Philippines has traditionally underexploited its natural resources. The government estimates that there are 21.5 billion tons of metal deposits in the country, including large deposits of nickel, iron, copper and gold. But they have never been a significant driver of economic growth because extraction has been mismanaged, Mr. Neumann said.

In the shorter term, there are concerns that the country’s newfound prosperity has not sufficiently eradicated poverty.

Other countries in the region, most notably China and Japan, but also Thailand and Vietnam, have successfully developed export-driven manufacturing, bringing millions of people out of poverty and increasing the size of their middle classes. Manufacturing typically draws workers away from agriculture, which pays less. But many of the large foreign companies that financed such transitions to manufacturing in Asia have avoided the Philippines because of periods of political instability.

The service sector — including the young call center workers who were recently reveling in Manila — are helping drive an economic boom in the cities.

But that type of outsourcing still provides only about 1 percent of jobs in the country, according to data from the Asian Development Bank. And the strong sector does not create jobs accessible to farmers or to millions of other Filipinos in rural areas who seek a way out of poverty.

“While the Philippines’ business process outsourcing industry has grown impressively, it still employs a very small portion of the country’s work force,” noted Rajat M. Nag, a managing director of the Asian Development Bank. “It needs to aggressively develop its manufacturing sector to create more jobs.”

On Emerald Avenue in the Ortigas business district of Manila, where hundreds of call center workers pour out of skyscrapers to gossip and smoke, Mika Santos, 18, does not have much to say about the national economy. But she is very happy with her own situation.

After completing a two-year information technology course and passing an exam in English proficiency, she started handling customer service calls for a United States mobile phone company. She earns a comparatively high salary for an entry-level job, and her employer offers incentive bonuses, free meals and shuttle service.

Had she been born a generation earlier, she would most likely have worked as a low-income farmer or gone overseas to find work. “My parents didn’t have any opportunity like this,” she said.




This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: August 27, 2012

An earlier version of this article misstated the Philippines’ rank among world economies as 112, rather than 44.

“The worst is probably over for India – we may be at, or close to the bottom,”



Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India picked up pace in the April-June quarter helped by a rise in construction output, prompting economists to say the worst might just be over for Asia’s third largest economy struggling to return to the days of 8-9 percent growth rates.




Felix Hug | Photolibrary RM | Getty Images





The economy expanded 5.5 percent in the second quarter, beating consensus estimates and marking an improvement from the previous three months when growth came in at 5.3 percent - the slowest pace in nine years.

Economists expect India to better that in the coming months as commodity prices decline and a weak, but stable rupee makes its exports more competitive.

“The worst is probably over for India – we may be at, or close to the bottom,” Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Director of Asian Economics at Credit Suisse in Singapore told CNBC.

“The economy is losing some of the negatives that were hampering it before – oil prices are at a more manageable level, the lagged effects of the interest rate rises in 2010-2011 are fading,” he said, adding that he expects growth to move towards the trend rate of 7 percent in coming quarters.

The Reserve Bank of India forecasts growth will come in at 6.5 percent for the current fiscal year, while the government’s target is 6.7 percent.

Weaker oil prices – which have declined more than 10 percent over the last six months - help to contain India’s current account deficit as the country imports 70 percent of its crude requirements. Higher imports of oil and gold led the country’s current account deficit to widen to a record high of 4.5 percent of GDP in the January-March period.