Saturday, September 1, 2012

Could Burma be the next emerging market miracle?


Not just green shoots, Burma's economy is set to bloom

In Rangoon's hotel lobbies anticipation is high. Brash Australian miners rub shoulders with hard-nosed American private equity investors. Indonesian infrastructure specialists and Japanese salesmen scout out the terrain.

Everyone here is eager to be first out of the starting blocks as the economy of Burma, a previously isolated country, opens up for business.

The opportunities abound, in raw materials such as gems, timber, rubber and gas, but also in catering for a population of 55 million in need of everything from healthcare to smartphones.

"I think this is the last virgin market left in the world, the last untapped market," says Vinod Chugani, an American-educated Singaporean.

"Twelve years ago, when I was in China, I felt the same rush."
Hands up who's ready to do business in Burma

Vinod Chugani is here to sell Panasonic's range of multi-line phones, rice cookers and projectors.

"There is a massive race going on. It's intense," he says.

"This is one of last frontiers, along with North Korea and to some extent Iran," says Romain Caillaud, who heads the Rangoon office of Vriens and Partners, advising multinationals entering Burma.

Burma also sits at a key geographic junction.

"Just look at the map and you'll see the location is strategic, at the crossroad between India, China, Thailand, in the middle of one of the fastest growing regions in the world," he says.Piles of cash

After 50 years the generals who governed Burma have stepped back and handed power to a nominally civilian government.

They have also begun the first tentative steps in reforming the economy.

And they have been rewarded with the suspension of sanctions by the West.

But 50 years of isolation from the global economy has taken its toll, above all on the financial system.
Banking cash in Rangoon is a big job

At the main Rangoon branch of Yoma bank, customers wander in with plastic bags full of bank notes.

Their voices are barely audible above the whirring and clicking of mechanical counting machines, lined up like washing machines in a launderette.

A dozen staff work their way through the stacks piled high on the tables.

American financial sanctions and a home-grown banking crisis have undermined Burma's banking system, so that now most people simply keep their money in cash.

If you want to buy a car you go to the showroom with a box full of notes. If you want to buy a house you drive over a car full of money.

There are a handful of cash machines now in Rangoon, but none that work for foreigners. Credit cards can be used, for a stiff fee, only at a few top-range hotels.

All this may soon change, with the lifting of American financial sanctions.

But the rudimentary banking system is not the only obstacle to doing business.

No comments:

Post a Comment